Population in Economics

Population refers to the total number of people living in a particular geographical area at a given point in time. In economics, the study of population (demography) is crucial because people are both the factors of production (labor) and the ultimate consumers of goods and services.

1. Population Theories

A. Malthusian Theory

Proposed by Thomas Robert Malthus in 1798. His main arguments were:

• Population grows at a geometric progression (1, 2, 4, 8, 16...).
• Food supply grows at an arithmetic progression (1, 2, 3, 4, 5...).
• If left unchecked, population will outstrip food supply leading to famine, war, and disease (Positive Checks).
• To avoid this, Malthus suggested Preventive Checks like celibacy, late marriage, and moral restraint.

B. Demographic Transition Theory

This theory explains the stages of population growth as a country develops:

• Stage 1 (Pre-Industrial): High birth rates and high death rates. Population is stable but low.
• Stage 2 (Transitional): High birth rates but falling death rates due to improved healthcare. Rapid population growth (Population Explosion). Most developing countries like Nigeria are here.
• Stage 3 (Industrial): Low birth rates and low death rates. Population becomes stable again.

2. Census: Meaning and Importance

A census is the official, periodic head count of people in a country, usually conducted every 10 years. It involves collecting, compiling, and publishing demographic, economic, and social data.

Importance of Census

• Planning: Helps the government plan for education, health, and housing.
• Revenue Allocation: Used to distribute national wealth among regions.
• Investment: Foreign investors look at population size to determine market potential.
• Representation: Used to determine the number of seats in the legislature.

Problems of Census in Nigeria

• Illiteracy and superstition (people hiding for religious reasons).
• Inadequate transport and communication in rural areas.
• Political interference and falsification of figures for revenue gains.
• High cost of conducting the exercise.

3. Population Size and Growth

• Optimum Population: The size of population that, when combined with available resources, yields the highest possible income per capita.
• Under-population: When the population is too small to fully utilize the country's resources. Increasing the population would increase per capita income.
• Over-population: When the population exceeds the available resources, leading to a decline in per capita income and standard of living.

4. Population Structure and Distribution

• Age Structure: Categorized into Children (0-15), Working Class (16-64), and the Aged (65+).
• Dependency Ratio: The ratio of those not in the labor force (0-15 and 65+) to the working population. Formula: [(Children + Aged) / Working Class] × 100.
• Sex Ratio: The ratio of males to females in a population.
• Geographical Distribution: The spread of people across rural and urban areas.

5. Population Policy in Nigeria

Nigeria's National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development aims to improve the quality of life. Key objectives include reducing the fertility rate (advocating 4 children per woman), reducing infant mortality, and encouraging family planning to balance population growth with economic development.